This study describes a new strategic framework using the Three Horizons Methodology that engages experts, stakeholders and citizens in a participatory foresight exercise. Together they think ahead towards four entangled responsible transitions within the planetary system boundaries. The aim is to achieve “Transparent” governance, “Responsible” living, “Inclusive” economy and “Sustainable” energy and environmental goals – the so-called TRIS development model introduced by the authors.  Amidst the global pandemic of Covid-19, this framework can guide policy responses to manage the medium and long term challenges facing our economies and societies.

The study introduces the Blue Transition Scenario (BTS) to develop the narratives of TRIS development in the Mediterranean. The narratives all have in common the mission of raising an “eco-system awareness” of the challenges and opportunities ahead for the Mediterranean – North, South and East – to move away from the current unsustainable development model, shaping instead a new pathway of development based on the three pillars: dialogue, a common purpose and project, regional coordinated strategies and roadmaps for a TRIS development of the whole region.  The narratives of the BTS were co-developed by EMNES team during 2018-19 to “imagine” the futures of the region. The BTS anchored in the TRIS development model guided EMNES researchers and fellows to produce the Blue Transition Policy Roadmap for the Mediterranean. The Roadmap covers the research undertaken by EMNES on governance, institutions, STI, private sector, labour, finance and trade. The Covid-19 outbreak in 2020, predicted by very few, shook the societies and economies around the globe. The propagation of the infection was quicker than the response capacity of the governments. This event should make us think about what future we want and how to achieve it.

About the Authors: Rym Ayadi is the President of EMEA, Director of EMNES and Professor at CASS Business School, City University of London; and Carlo Sessa is Member of the Executive Board of EMEA and Associate Member of EMNES.

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